Time to Go

In spite of uncertainty, my best guess regarding when I'm coming home.

When Lisa was pregnant with our son Henry, both she and my sister Heather told me that I had no idea what it was going to be like to be a parent. They had experience and I didn't, so I took their word for it. Subsequently, when people asked me if I was nervous or worried, I told them that I was not. What was the point of worrying if I couldn't possibly fathom what was in store for me? It seemed much more reasonable to stay in the moment, be excited, and focus on experiencing the richness and range of fatherhood.

That life lesson in letting go and allowing is serving me well as my incarceration draws to a close. I can see the exit door, but I don't know exactly when I'll walk out. Therefore, when guys ask me how much more time I have, I usually respond with a little story:

A student goes to his Zen master and says, "I want to go home." The master replies, "You will go home when it's time." The student asks, "How will I know when it's time?" The master responds, "When you're home."

That's typically the end of the conversation and you can imagine how popular I am around here. For those who are dogged enough to press on, I point out that with how much change is happening in the system at present, nobody knows how much time I have left, and so I can't possible know. Instead of obsessing about what's unknowable, like fatherhood, I'm focused on taking one day at a time and staying ready to go whenever my number gets called.

All that being said, I did reach an important milestone in my carceral journey that makes it reasonable and appropriate to share an update. On April 23rd, I had a semi-annual meeting with my case manager (called a "unit team meeting") in which he shared several pieces of information.

First, he confirmed that I have satisfied all of my programming needs and that he has no concerns about me. I was turned down for the fourth time to participate in the community service program for reasons unknown, and there is nothing left for me to do here but wait to go. Second, according to his estimate based on current BOP policy, I will be eligible to be in pre-release custody (home confinement) by December 25th, 2025. And third, he committed to submit my release paperwork at the time of my next unit team meeting in October.

Although these three pieces of information do not sway the Zen master's perspective on the fundamental truth of uncertainty, they do indicate progress. They also dovetail with other data points I have been gathering. Let's review:

* If I were to serve every day of my 11 year sentence, I would be released to probation in September, 2031.

* Net of Good Conduct Time (GCT) I am afforded under the law, that date moves forward to January, 2030.

* Net net of GCT and the first 12 months of time credits I earned toward sentence reduction under the First Step Act (FTCs), that date moves forward to January, 2029.

While it is possible for some or all of my GCT and FTCs to be taken away, I would have to engage in the kind of knuckleheaded behavior that is not my straight-arrow style. That scenario does not concern me.

Between now and January, 2029 is the period that becomes more complicated and fluid. I have earned, will earn, and can be awarded more time credits toward pre-release custody (PRC: home confinement or halfway house) under the First Step and Second Chance Acts. Netting out that combination of PRC-applicable credits is how the case manager arrived at his estimate that I will leave the camp in December, 2025 (my "conditional release date"). My own estimate is that I'll be out mid-to-late Q1'26. We're in a similar ballpark, which is a good thing, but does not equate to certainty.

It is also worth noting that multiple members of the staff have indicated to us that the wheels are in motion to close the camp and send those who are qualified (I can't think of a reason why I wouldn't be) to home confinement. There are numerous signs external to this institution that that possibility is more than a rumor and could happen before the end of the federal government's fiscal year on September 30th. There are long shots for an even earlier release through the court or the new Pardon Czar Alice Johnson that are in play, but I don't factor those into my thinking at this point.

As you can see, even though the runway is getting short, there are still quite a few variables that reinforce uncertainty. If you forced me to take off my Zen master hat (do they wear hats?) and put on my prognosticator hat, I would say that 5-10 months from now, I will leave Thomson. It seems increasingly unlikely that I will have to spend time in a halfway house because that would be a pointless waste of resources, and will instead go straight to home confinement. Based on the law-abiding and productive manner in which I live my life, I suspect that I will be on both home confinement and probation for the bare minimum amount of time, perhaps two years combined.

The bottom line is that it is almost time to go. As I was leaving the case manager's office, he said, "Get ready." I told him, "I'm ready now and will stay that way until you tell me it's time. I need 10 minutes to pack."

I pass along his words to you. Get ready. I'm coming home soon.